2017 Pass Rates

2017 Pass Rates

Postby boops » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:44 am

The 2017 Pass Rates have been published on NCARB's website.

4.0: https://www.ncarb.org/pass-the-are/are4/pass-rates

5.0: https://www.ncarb.org/pass-are/are5/pass-rates

As expected, some 5.0 pass rates increased as more candidates took the exams.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby thd7t » Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:43 am

The drops in 4.0 pass rates seem reasonable, because there must be people scrambling to get them done. Without knowing how many people tested in the first half of the year vs. the second half, it's hard to know how much the rates have improved, but it definitely shows increased pass rates.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby boops » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:02 am

thd7t wrote:Without knowing how many people tested in the first half of the year vs. the second half, it's hard to know how much the rates have improved, but it definitely shows increased pass rates.


Rough numbers without knowing how many tested in Nov. & Dec. 2016:
First half = 4,092
Second half = 3,565
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby thd7t » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:25 am

boops wrote:
thd7t wrote:Without knowing how many people tested in the first half of the year vs. the second half, it's hard to know how much the rates have improved, but it definitely shows increased pass rates.


Rough numbers without knowing how many tested in Nov. & Dec. 2016:
First half = 4,092
Second half = 3,565

Thanks! That would suggest that pass rates for the entire year are below the median for the latter half of the year by a fair amount. It's likely that pass rates are pretty similar to 4.0 pass rates already.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby Sarcasmo » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:06 am

Interesting -- 5.0 pass rates are increasing, but not by all that much. CE pass rate shows a significant bump, but the others are pretty flat.

I would have expected a bit more of a bump -- three of the exams did not change at all. The 5.0 exam is still new, or at least new-ish, but I think candidates are starting to collectively figure out what's on the 5.0 exams and how to study -- which I'd have expected to have created a noticeable difference in success rate from the time when I started the 5.0 process about a year ago. At that time there were still the early tester gift card benefits, the months-long waiting period for scores while waiting for enough test takers to achieve a 600 person scoring cut, etc., etc. -- at that time it seemed like no one knew what the hell was supposed to be happening.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby thd7t » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:23 am

Sarcasmo wrote:Interesting -- 5.0 pass rates are increasing, but not by all that much. CE pass rate shows a significant bump, but the others are pretty flat.

I would have expected a bit more of a bump -- three of the exams did not change at all. The 5.0 exam is still new, or at least new-ish, but I think candidates are starting to collectively figure out what's on the 5.0 exams and how to study -- which I'd have expected to have created a noticeable difference in success rate from the time when I started the 5.0 process about a year ago. At that time there were still the early tester gift card benefits, the months-long waiting period for scores while waiting for enough test takers to achieve a 600 person scoring cut, etc., etc. -- at that time it seemed like no one knew what the hell was supposed to be happening.

I think that it's deceptive, because the first rate is for half the year and the second rate includes the first half of the year, so three sections didn't see increase, but the other three saw at least 6% increase, which is pretty substantial. I will admit that I'm surprised that PPD and PDD haven't seen increases, because I figured that they'd be the most heavily trafficked and people would be establishing standard study methods quicker.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby Sarcasmo » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:36 am

Hi thd7t --
I just don't see the increase as substantial. In my previous post, I mentioned the difference between "then and now" for the 5.0 testing atmosphere. You have to remember that some folks took 5.0 exams in late 2016 and very early 2017, and did not see any exam results until May of 2017 -- so, zero feedback on what study approaches seemed to be working or not working for the first 6 or 7 months of 5.0 -- which essentially translates to a group of candidates flying blind.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby thd7t » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:53 am

Hi Sarcasmo, I guess it's just a difference in what we see as significant! Also, because the first group of testers worked with no feedback, it means that even the next six months might account for some more calibration of studying and test materials. I wouldn't be surprised to see a greater increase for this calendar year.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby boops » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:59 am

From 2008 – 2016 the 4.0 exam (as a whole) saw an 8% increase in pass rates.

From first half of 2017 to second half of 2017 the 5.0 exam (as a whole) saw a 2.33% increase in pass rates*.

*Only 7,657 ARE 5.0 exams were administered in 2017, compared to 15,393 ARE 4.0 exams administered in 2017. I don’t know if there is enough data from the 5.0 to conclusively say that it is keeping with or ahead of the historical trends from the 4.0 pass rates.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby cloudyy » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:26 pm

Comparing the first year of 4.0 to the first year of 5.0--I think it's very interesting that the pass rate for the 5.0 are way lower across the board.
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Re: 2017 Pass Rates

Postby thd7t » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:49 am

The changes between 3.1 and 4.0 were a lot more subtle than those from 4.0 to 5.0, particularly in how content was arranged. I believe that this made existing study materials more useful.

In addition, vignettes were basically the same between the two, which gave people a leg up on studying.

Finally, when 4.0 launched, people had to have finished IDP before they could sit for the exams, so the general level of experience that testers had was probably higher. On the NCARB 5.0 forum, there are a lot of people who graduated in 2017 sitting for exams.
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